Summary:
DBVT’s peanut allergy-related therapy recently failed its efficacy endpoint in a Phase 3 clinical trial.
DBVT lost about 50% of its value, but still appears to be over-valued.
AIMT gained about 40% of its value and appears close to fully valued for upcoming Phase 3 success.
UPDATED INVESTMENT THESIS:
We previously published a Seeking Alpha article where we concluded that although AIMT appeared to have a more efficacious treatment for preventing severe anaphylaxis upon accidental exposure to peanuts, both AIMT and DBVT would eventually be commercially successful for their therapies. We recommended taking a small position in both companies, noting that the prices had already run up earlier this year ahead of their Phase 3 readouts this fall (DBVT) and early next year (AIMT). Since our article published, DBVT reported that it’s efficacy trial did not meet its FDA-agreed end-point. As a result, since our article published DBVT has lost almost 50% of its market value ($2.3B to $1.2B) and AIMT’s market cap has increased almost 40% ($1.3B to $1.8B). However, while AIMT’s current valuation can be justified, we feel that even after...