APLS: A Closer Look at the Current Setup

APLS

This stock is worth a closer look at the current enterprise value/stock price.

Pros

→ 2 Approved early-stage drugs,

→ 7/28 PDUFA with solid data for next rare disease indication for EMPAVELI,

→ More attractive entry point for buying stock (~$2.25B MC and EV),

⚬ Valuation is now 1/2 where it was 6 months ago

→ ~$150M/quarter in product revenue with early products,

→ Early stage SiRNA asset to enhance effectiveness of SYFOVRE has exciting potential,

→ SYFOVRE safety issue seems rare and has not appeared in months,

→ CFO reiterated even before recent deal with Sobi for $250M up-front, that APLS has cash to profitability,

⚬ No more dilutions

Cons

→ Tough Q1 for revenue for lead drug - SYFOVRE,

⚬ $130M Q1 2025 vs. $168M in Q4 2024 and $137M Q1 2024;,

⚬ Main reason: funding shortages at co-pay assistance programs,

⚬ Likely resets base quarterly rev for future growth to $130M,

→ Major competitor has similar drug and power of large-pharma marketing - Astellas,

→ SYFOVRE has serious safety issue, even if it is rare, and the positive effects of SYFOVRE are not readily apparent to pts,

→ Limited pipeline

Portfolio and HF holdings:

APLS is in a number of our portfolios because despite disappointing Q1 revenue, it was still held in 6 top Biopharm hedge funds, and is a top 20 holding as of May 15, for a number of those funds.

APLS target in our Top 20 fund is 5.8% of fund; and in our Top 50s fund is ~2% of fund.

CONCLUSION: 

#APLS is worth a closer look for your portfolio, at the current enterprise value/stock price.

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This article is not investment, tax, or legal advice. Please do your own diligence and seek advice from professional advisors representing your interests.

Article history:

First published 7/9/25 EJV & AV