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What drove AMRN up 20% last week?

Summary:

  • Amarin (AMRN) shares were up ~20% this past trading week

  • This bullish AMRN stock move was likely mainly due to keeping generic Vascepa to 11% script market share

  • AMRN share price is still near its lows since it reported its REDUCE-IT data in 2018

  • There were quite a few litigation developments last week and over the last months between AMRN and the generics for which AMRN investors should be aware. To learn details about these lawsuits from an experienced U.S. patent attorney, and to learn about AMP Biotech Research's view of AMRN stock currently, read the full article HERE, after signing up (locks in our current introductory pricing). Learn more here.


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AMRN reported its quarterly update last Thursday, August 5, 2021. Q2 ‘21 product revenue was $153.8M, up ~15% from the $135.3M revenue for Vascepa in Q2 ‘20. However, this revenue number was probably not the biggest reason that AMRN shares were up ~10% in the 2 trading days after its revenue announcement. Keep in mind that Vascepa Q2 ‘21 revenue was down from the Q3 2020 and especially Q4 2020 revenue numbers (BPIQ.com subscribers see our Vascepa IQ Card™). Also, for those who have not followed AMRN for a year or more, it is noteworthy that shares are still near there all-time low since the highly positive September 2018 readout of the REDUCE-IT long-term MACE trial. This is mainly because AMRN lost its first generic patent lawsuit, initially in the district court in March 2020, but finally with the recent Supreme Court's denial to review the lower court decisions (See our prior post here).


The increase in AMRN share price this past trading week in our view, was probably mostly due to the fact that AMRN has been able to hold generic competition to only about 11-12% of market share 6 months after generic entrance (See Amarin Reports Second Quarter and Six Month 2021 Financial Results and Provides Business Update). AMRN provided an interesting graphic (See FIG. 1) to support its assertion that the generic icosapent ethyl (Vascepa) market, is very different than a typical generic market, such as that for statins. The market share taken by generic icosapent ethyl (Vascepa) is only about 12% vs. 86% for generic statins at about the equivalent time after generic launch. With Dr. Reddy's laboratory launching its generic icosapent ethyl this past June ( Dr. Reddy's Laboratories announces the launch of Icosapent Ethyl Capsules, 1 gram in the U.S. Market) it will be interesting to see if AMRN's branded Vascepa's market share starts to erode more quickly.


FIG. 1 (icosapent ethyl (IPE)(Vascepa active ingredient) vs. statin generic market erosion


AMRN's increased share price this past week, might also reflect the market's excitement about AMRN branded Vaskepa's imminent launch in Germany next month, where, like all of Europe, AMRN will have market exclusivity for some years. The list price in Europe of about US$250 without generic erosion for years, seems pretty attractive given the generic U.S. monthly price as low as $88/month (See GoodRx generic icosapent ethyl page). The U.S. branded Vascepa monthly price of around $375 (see GoodRx), and there is an intro $9 for 90 day savings card price in the U.S. (Learn More). With it's new European CEO and launches in the coming months in more European countries, the promise of significant Vascepa revenue from Europe sales without generic competition is getting much closer to reality.


AMRN's increased share price this past week, might also reflect that there were some positive AMRN v. generic patent litigation news last week. In fact, there have been quite a few litigation developments not only last week but over the last months between AMRN and the generics, or related thereto, for which AMRN investors should be aware, including a new set of lawsuits that we have not yet reported on at BPIQ.com. These lawsuits provide interesting information for investors regarding AMRN's attempts to lock up suppliers of the active ingredient for Vascepa, to inhibit generics from entering the Vascepa market in the U.S. To learn details about these lawsuits from an experienced U.S. patent attorney, and to learn about AMP Biotech Research's view of AMRN stock currently, read the full article HERE, after signing up (locks in our current introductory pricing). Learn more here.

Become a BPIQ.com subscriber and read an the full version of this story. Learn more about ESPR before they report-out this week. Learn which commercial biopharma smid-caps were the biggest winners and losers from the Q1 report-outs, before their Q2 report-out, and more. Plus, you'll get access to our database of over 550 companies, 1,800+ of their drug assets, and tools including: Catalyst Calendar, Big Movers, Company Pipelines, and more!

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This article is not investment, tax, or legal advice. Please do you own diligence and seek advice from professional advisors representing your interests.


Article history:

8/7/21 initially published at ~3PM Central





 
 
 

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