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ANAB - Amp's Current Rating and Updated Positions

  • Writer: BPIQ
    BPIQ
  • Mar 7, 2023
  • 2 min read

See this post for our current thoughts on ANAB. ANAB piqued our interest since 5 vs 0 hedge funds added them to their top 20 holdings in Q4 vs. Q3. However, the funds were probably looking for a stock jump on alopecia data in early Q1 2023, which unfortunately came back negative and hit the stock pretty hard, but it has rebounded to since the Jan 2023 readout (FIG. 1)


FIG. 1

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What are Amp's current thoughts and positions on ANAB? Overall, we are cautiously bullish on ANAB from a long-term, multi-year perspective. Approvals and revenue surprises from GSK on JEMPERLI are probably the best near-term potential catalyst events. What we like (Bull Thesis):

  • Royalty stream from license to GSK for JEMPERLI (anti-PD1)

  • Stockpile of >4 yrs of cash at current burn

  • No dilution/raise in site

  • 3 assets will be in clinical trials during 2023 in some large indications

  • anti-PD1 (Ph2b in rheumatoid arthritis)

  • (Eli Lilly competitor validates value of target/mechanism)

  • anti- BTLAagonist (Ph2b atopic derm)

  • CD122 antag - to enter clinic in 2023

  • Productive antibody discover development team

  • 5 hedge funds moved into ANAB in top 20 positions in Q4 2022 vs. 0 in Q3 2022

   What we don't like (Bear Thesis):

  • ANAB has had some big failures in past development trials (e.g. etokimab failed in atopic derm)

  • Most recent failure was Rosnilimab (anti-PD1 agonist) in Alopecia

  • Is Rosnilmab not as good an antibody in vivo as suggested by in vitro testing disclosed by ANAB?

  • Major readouts are years out

  • ANAB has been a bad holding for most long-term investors as evidenced by its 5 yr stock chart (FIG. 2).


FIG. 2

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Is Amp adjusting any positions after this year's readout?

Our plan is to maintain our positions similar to current positions, only holding in our BPIQ Select (Spread the Risk) account but not other accounts. We may increase our position in that fund from 1% to 2% if our cash is above 10% and XBI falls below $80/share.


Current Amp Positions And New Target Positions See our full Amp article for more info on our current positions. 


This article is not investment, tax, or legal advice. Please do your own diligence and seek advice from professional advisors representing your interests.


Article history:

Originally posted 3/7/23

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