COGT: Worth a Look Despite >60% Higher Valuation
- BiopharmIQ
- Jul 29
- 3 min read
COGT
I have been updating my diligence in COGT over the past month
They had a big positive readout on 7/7/25
They have several more big readouts this year, although probably not as big as the 7/7 readout
Background
I initially started to follow COGT after I saw them as a biopharma hedge fund favorite at that time (great way to find new companies to dig into)
They are trying to develop a better drug than BPMC's Ayvakit targeting same mutation of same enzyme, with more potency and less blood/brain barrier penetration
Read our prior article on COGT vs BPMC from December 2013
BPMC was acquired by Sanofi earlier this month for about $8B
A reasonable current valuation of COGT is NOT close to $8B
BPMC has the only approved drug for nonadvanced Mastocytisis (Ayvakit), which will do >$700M rev this yr in just 2nd year after launch
COGT is now up ~60% since before its 7/7 report out
COGT is up over 200% since its multi-year low in April 2025
Key question:
Is COGT now fairly priced by market at $1.7B MC and $1.3B EV?
Pros:
COGT has 2 additional catalyst readouts this year that are significantly derisked from the 7/7 readout, and will provide more data from SUMMIT Ph3 readout
Caution: Derisked never means NO risk in bio/pharma
COGT's lead drug - Bezu, appears to be more potent than BPMC's Avakit, at least at doses that are pretty well tolerated
There were some complete remissions, whereas very few if any of those with Avakit
Avakit has some cognition side effects from the fact that it penetrates the blood/brain barrier
COGT's Bezu has no apparent cognition issues (it crosses the blood brain barrier much less than Avakit)
Although Bezu has other side effects, which spooked the market in the past, as more data comes out, Bezu side effects seem minor compared to potentially high benefit to patients
Only 5.9% of patients in Bezu Ph3 discontinued, and only for transiently high grade ALT/AST, which reversed on discontinuation
Although there was a large placebo effect in the Bezu Ph3 readout (placebo had higher efficacy than Avakit had in its Ph3s), Bezu efficacy was so strong, it overcame the high placebo
Cons:
Patients appear to be happy on Avakit and BPMC (now Sanofi) and physicians can prescribe higher doses, and Sanofi is testing a more potent inhibitor
1st mover advantage here might be very hard for Bezu/COGT to overcome if/when it is approved (probably not until late 2026)
Bezu side effects caused prior drops in COGT stock, and if liver tox (other than transient ALT/AST readings) appears in any future readout, COGT stock will likely drop >50%
Bezu has other side effects like hair color change, hair loss, and transient ALT/AST liver enzyme increases that Avakit does not have
Placebo effect was very high in recent Bezu Ph3, this could create an issue in upcoming readouts
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This article is not investment, tax, or legal advice. Please do your own diligence and seek advice from professional advisors representing your interests.
Article history:
First published 07/30/25 EJV, AV
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