Biopharma March Madness Has Begun: Obesity & NASH 😃
• Lots of clinical readouts in March 🚀
• Obesity/NASH readouts continue to drive stocks
• See NOVO obesity update on 3/7/24 👇
$NVO
⇒ Released Ph1 obesity data on 3/7/24 for oral amycretin
⇒ Average weight loss of 13.1% after 12 weeks! 👏
See image 📸
⇒ No safety data that we could find
⇒ SC amycretin Ph1 trial ongoing, with readout in 2025
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2 key positive smid-cap obesity/NASH trials read out recently:
$VKTX GLP-1 obesity & AKRO FGF21 NASH
Comparing the markets rxn to these readouts...
gives us insights into how the market values
smid-cap obesity vs. NASH pure plays
$VKTX VK2735 Ph2 obesity read out
2/27/24
• ~13% placebo adj weight loss in 13 wks
• Safety profile at least as good as other GLP1-s
• Best in class efficacy? 👇📷
• GLP-1/GIP
• Weekly subQ
⇒ Same as $LLY tirzepatide
⇒ But VK2735 may require less frequent dosing
• Stock up 121% on readout 🚀
$AKRO Efruxifermin (EFX) Ph2 NASH/MASH read out 3/4/24
• Wk 96 data Ph2b HARMONY trial
• FGF21
• once-weekly subQ dosing
• stat sig histological improvements vs. placebo
⇒ Fibrosis & MASH resolution 😀
• Best NASH therapeutic? 👇📷
⇒⇒ only slight blemish - bone density effect?
• Stock up only 12% on readout?
Why was VKTX up 121% and AKRO up only 12%? 🤔
This Market rxn confirms
that Market values obesity plays > pure NASH plays
VKTX is up >650% since Nov 1
VKTX enterprise value = $7.63B
AKRO is up >135% since Nov 1
AKRO enterprise value = $1.21B
Why does the market value VKTX
so much more than AKRO?🤔
VKTX is an OBESITY/NASH play
• VKTX has a pure-NASH asset too
whereas
AKRO is a pure NASH play
Keep in mind, as we’ve written about
GLP-1s appear to treat NASH
• Not as well as some pure NASH plays like AKRO?
& maybe ORAL NASH pure-plays (e.g., $MDGL)
have advantages
time will tell
Market seems to conclude that GLP-1s
have leapfrogged NASH-targeted therapies for NASH
(See our post on recent LLY tirzepatide NASH data)
Situation is tough for smid-cap NASH pure plays
So with all this competition and noise
Do smid-cap NASH and obesity plays have a chance?
⇒ Obesity players like $GPCR & $ZEAL
⇒ Obesity/NASH players like VKTX, $TERN, & $ALT?
⇒ NASH players like $MDGL & AKRO?
Heck yeah!
Other large caps need to compete with NOVO and LLY
Lots of room in these markets, for multiple players
• $PFE, $AMGN, etc.
Makes these smid-caps excellent buyouts
• 2/12/24 $GILD buying $CBAY for liver asset
M&A is a great outcome for smid-cap investors
• VKTX has been in M&A rumor mill for months
& most importantly
These obesity and NASH breakthroughs
are great news for patients! 😊
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Smid-caps with key obesity assets
[$Ticker % move 3/7/24, (Market cap)]
$ALT -11.9% ($530M)
$GPCR -9.8% ($1.6B)
$TERN -4.76% ($459M)
$VKTX -18.8% ($6.8B)
$ZEAL +6%* ($6.3B)
*Not on a major U.S. stock exchange (Copenhagen Nasdaq and OTC in US)
Do smid-caps need some St. Pat’s luck 🍀🍀
to compete with $NOVO and $LLY in obesity/NASH?
Did 3/7/24 price drop create a buying opportunity
for these smid-caps? 🤔
⚠️ Most of these obesity smid-caps still up big lately
🍀 In honor of St. Patty’s Day were offering 50% off 🍀
At BPIQ, we are feeling lucky because of all the progress being made in new therapies to treat obesity/liver/metabolic disorders.
Get 50% off with our St. Pat’s Day Sale
Get instant access to which obesity smid-caps are hedge fund favorites [CLICK HERE]
Hurry - sale ends on St. Pat’s Day!
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The March Madness Obesity and NASH fun continues this month with the following:
• MDGL ⇨ PDUFA
• VKTX oral GLP/GIP ⇨ Ph1 data readout
• IVA ⇨ Ph2a data readout
💡To read more about obesity candidates, check out our prior post in this forum:
• Investing in Obesity Drug Breakthroughs
This article is not investment or legal advice.
Article history:
3/11/24 EJV & AV
#NVO #VKTX #AKRO #LLY #PFE #AMGN #GILD #CBAY #ALT #GPCR #TERN #ZEAL #MDGL #IVA
