Biotech General Discussion

Early promise and positive Ph 1 results:

• In October 2023, excitement surrounded VKTX as a promising small-cap player in the obesity market.

• Initial data from the Phase 1 injectable trial of VK2735, a dual GLP-1 and GIP receptor agonist, was presented at Obesity Week 2023.

Image 1: Ph1 study results summary

Breakthrough Ph 2 results and market reaction:

• On 02/27/24, VKTX reported exceptional topline data from its Phase 2 VENTURE trial of VK2735 for obesity.

• The drug achieved statistically significant reductions in body weight, exceeding the 8% target with an average placebo-adjusted weight loss of up to 13.1% after 13 weeks.

• The market reacted enthusiastically, pushing VKTX stock up 121%. 🚀

Image 2.1: Ph2 study results

And a plateau was not reached at 13 weeks.

So with longer duration, there will likely be more weight loss.

Image 2.2: Ph2 study results

Comparing VK2735 to existing drugs & future considerations:

VK2735 is a dual GLP-1 and GIPR agonist

• Weekly subQ injections

• Same delivery & MOA as $LLY Tirzepatide

⇨ 11/8/23 Approved by FDA for obesity

• Dual agonists likely more potent than GLP-1 alone

VKTX set an 8% weight loss target

for 13 week, ph2 VENTURE obesity trial 📸

• 8% = Tirzepatide ~13wk weight loss

• 8% = Semaglutide ~20 wk weight loss

VK2735 hit up to 15% weight loss @ 13 wks 🥳

• Dose dependent 9-15% weight loss 

• No plateau thru wk 13 📸

Data was good, but did the market overreact?

Is VK2735 really more potent than Tirzepatide?

• VK2735 Venture trial: n=35

• Tirzep Study 1: n=1306

What happens over longer durations?

• VK2735 Venture trial: 13 wks

• Tirzep Study 1: 68 wks

Does VK2735 have to be better than Tirzep to become a blockbuster?

Or if VK2735 eventually approved, will the main revenue driver be who can make the most injection cartridges?

Either way, good to have another promising weight loss drug in development.

And...

Maybe VK2735 will have a dosing advantage?

• VENTURE VK2735 trial was weekly dosing

• Tirzep & semaglutide are weekly dosing

But VK2735 may need less frequent dosing

• pK of VK2735 = 170-250 hrs 1/2 life (VK 3/28/23 PR)

• pK of Tirzep = 101-158 hrs (Urva et al. 2022)

• VKTX thinks VKTX2735 may work well with monthly dosing 😲

Stay tuned for more ...

after future VK2735 readouts

Image 3: VK2735 vs. other weight loss agents

M&A chatter and future outlook:

Following the Phase 2 results last fall, M&A chatter surrounding VKTX intensified and continues.

but,

there are a lot of "buts" 🤔

Most recent chatter...

$LLY may have lost interest?

but,

$PFE keeps getting mentioned

• Cardiometabolic is 1 of 5 key pillars for PFE innovation

• PFE has a clinical stage weight loss asset - danuglipron

⇒ Had a recent Ph2 setback

but,

• PFE needs to integrate SGEN this year

⇒ At JPM ’24 PFE CEO said no major M&A in ’24 for PFE

but,

Many other pharma would be interest in VK2735

• Obesity market opp is huge

• & VKTX has a valuable NASH asset too

but

• VKTX is up over 100% this week & now

⇒ now VKTX enterprise value is >$8B 😲

So VKTX may be too expensive for M&A currently?

Viking Therapeutics and VK2735 represent a promising development in the fight against obesity. While further research and long-term data are needed, the initial results are encouraging and have positioned VKTX as a major player to watch in this growing market.

This article is not investment or legal advice.

Article history:

First published 03/04/24 AV & EJV

#VKTX #VK2735 #Tirzepatide #obesity #semaglutide #LLY #NOVO #PFE